Camera Gear

Is Nikon’s Camera Business Slowing Down? What the New Forecast Shows

Nikon raised its full-year profit forecast by 50%, but cut its revenue outlook on a weaker holiday plan for cameras and lenses. Here’s what the new numbers show, and what they don’t.

Nikon has raised its full-year profit forecast by 50%, but cut its revenue outlook, and it points to its camera business as the main reason. The company now expects weaker camera and lens sales in the second half of its fiscal year, which includes the holiday season.

Nikon published the revised forecast on October 30, about a week before its full first-half results. The headline profit number looks strong. The camera picture underneath it doesn’t.

The Numbers

Nikon now expects full-year operating profit of ¥16.5 billion, about $106 million, up from ¥11.0 billion in its August forecast. Revenue goes the other direction, down ¥10 billion to ¥722 billion, or about $4.66 billion. Dollar figures use Nikon’s planning rate of ¥155 to the dollar, as reported by CineD.

Nikon’s fiscal year runs from April 2026 to March 2027. Most of the profit improvement comes from the first half, which is already over: Nikon had planned an operating loss of ¥5.5 billion for April through September, and now expects a profit of ¥9.0 billion.

Where the Profit Came From

The better profit outlook isn’t coming from cameras. According to CineD’s reading of Nikon’s notice, the boost came from higher service revenue in Nikon’s semiconductor equipment business, refunds of U.S. import tariffs and lower costs from spending cuts and postponed expenses.

Nikon raised its profit outlook for its precision equipment, healthcare and industrial divisions. Its imaging business, which includes cameras and lenses, wasn’t on that list.

Why the Holidays Look Weaker

Nikon says the lower revenue forecast comes mainly from a lower second-half sales plan for its imaging products. Subtracting the first half from the full year, Nikon’s October-to-March outlook falls from ¥396.0 billion to ¥387.5 billion in revenue, and from ¥16.5 billion to ¥7.5 billion in operating profit.

That’s notable because the second half includes the holiday season, usually the strongest stretch for camera sales. The full-year profit forecast only rose because the first half came in so far ahead of plan.

The August Cut

This follows an earlier cut. In August, Nikon lowered its camera targets, citing weak demand in China and rising memory costs, covered in Nikon Earnings Show Camera Sales Decline.

At the time, Nikon planned to sell 850,000 interchangeable-lens cameras and 1.25 million lenses this fiscal year, with imaging revenue of ¥290 billion. Its new notice doesn’t include updated segment figures or unit targets, so the size of the latest camera cut isn’t clear yet.

What It Means for the ZR and RED

Nikon doesn’t report RED or its cinema cameras separately, so the ZR and RED’s cinema lineup fall into the overall imaging total. Nikon’s medium-term plan targets ¥360 billion in imaging revenue by the fiscal year ending March 2028, with an upcoming Z Cinema series as part of that growth.

A weaker holiday plan makes those targets harder to reach. For more on Nikon’s cinema-focused body, see Nikon ZR vs. Z6III: Nikon Makes Its Own Case for the Cinema Body.

Competitive Context

Nikon’s outlook stands apart from some of its rivals. Canon’s camera business has been strong this year, though Canon has warned it may raise prices in 2027 if memory costs stay high.

Memory costs, driven by demand for chips in AI data centers, have pushed price increases across the industry this year, including from Fujifilm, Sony and Blackmagic Design.

The Signal in the Noise

Nikon’s group profit is recovering, but not because of cameras. The company now expects a weaker holiday season for its camera and lens business than it planned three months ago, on top of an earlier cut in August.

The full first-half results, expected in early November, should show how deep the imaging cut goes and whether Nikon lowers its camera unit targets again. For buyers, the bigger questions are whether weak demand and memory costs lead to price changes or slower product launches, including the Z Cinema lineup.

Are you holding off on Nikon gear until the Z Cinema lineup arrives? Share what you’re waiting for in the comments.

The Details

Company: Nikon
Forecast revised: October 30, 2026
Fiscal year: April 2026 to March 2027
Operating profit forecast: ¥16.5 billion (about $106 million), up from ¥11.0 billion
Revenue forecast: ¥722 billion (about $4.66 billion), down ¥10 billion
Second-half outlook: Revenue ¥387.5 billion (down from ¥396.0 billion); operating profit ¥7.5 billion (down from ¥16.5 billion)
Main reason for lower revenue: Lower second-half sales plan for cameras and lenses
Profit drivers: Semiconductor equipment services, U.S. tariff refunds, cost cuts
Full first-half results: Expected in early November